THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 2
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Illinois (4-2, 1-4 ATS) at (18) Clemson (6-1, 2-3 ATS)
Having dropped out of the Top 25 following back-to-back losses, the Illini look to get back on track when they invade Littlejohn Coliseum for an ACC/Big Ten challenge matchup with Clemson.
Illinois sprinted out to a 4-0 start, all of them double-digit home wins over inferior competition. But the Illini finally stepped up in class at the Las Vegas Invitational over the weekend and lost on consecutive days to Utah (60-58 as a 7½-point favorite) and Bradley (72-68 as an eight-point chalk). Illinois is 1-6 ATS in its last seven lined outings dating to last season, including 0-3 ATS in the last three.
The Tigers entered last week’s 76 Classic in Anaheim, Calif., with a 4-0 record, then suffered their first loss of the season – 69-60 to Texas A&M as a six-point chalk on Thursday – before rebounding with wins over Long Beach State (87-79 on Friday) and 12th-ranked Butler (70-69 on Sunday). However, Clemson – which made two free throws with 3.3 seconds left to beat Butler – failed to cover as a favorite in all three of those tournament contests, dropping to 2-6 ATS in its last eight lined outings.
These teams met last year in Illinois, and the Tigers stole a 76-74 win as a one-point road underdog. Including two upset wins by the Illini in 1997 and 1998, the ‘dog has won outright in three straight meetings between these schools.
Aside from a solid 28-13-2 run in Wednesday contests, Illinois is in the midst of ATS droughts of 1-6 overall, 1-6 in non-conference play, 2-5 on the road, 1-4 against the ACC and 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Clemson has cashed in five of seven against the Big Ten, but is otherwise in ATS slumps of 2-6 overall (all non-conference games), 1-4 at home, 0-4 after a non-cover and 0-7 versus winning opponents.
The under is on stretches of 5-2 for the Illini versus the ACC, 8-2 for the Illini on Wednesday, 11-3 for Clemson at home and 5-1 for Clemson in non-conference action. Conversely, Illinois has topped the total in four straight games overall, while the over is 6-2 in the Tigers’ last eight against the Big Ten and their last eight on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON
Minnesota (4-2, 2-3 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (7-0, 2-1 ATS)
The Hurricanes face by far their toughest challenge this season when they entertain Minnesota at the BankUnited Center in South Beach in another ACC/Big Ten Challenge contest.
The Gophers are coming off consecutive upset losses to Portland (61-56 as an 8½-point favorite) and Texas A&M (66-65 as a 5½-point choice) in last weekend’s 76 Classic in Anaheim, Calif. After netting 81.8 ppg in its first four games (all victories), Minnesota averaged just 60.5 ppg in the two losses in Anaheim while shooting just 35.9 percent from the field. The Gophers continue to play strong defense, though, giving up just 57.2 ppg (35.8 percent shooting)
Miami has taken full advantage of a cupcake schedule, ripping off seven straight wins to begin the season, with six coming by 15 points or more. In their most recent lined outing – and against their only tough opponent so far – the Hurricanes clobbered South Carolina 85-70 as a 2½-point underdog in a neutral-site contest. Miami has scored at last 70 points in six of its seven games, and only the Gamecocks managed to score more than 60 points against the ‘Canes, who are yielding just 56 ppg (38.4 percent).
This is the first meeting between these schools.
Minnesota is riding a slew of negative ATS streaks, including 6-15 overall in lined action, 1-9 on the road, 2-7 versus the ACC and 4-10 after a SU loss. The ‘Canes are on positive pointspread upticks of 4-2 at home and 18-5 in non-league games, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight against Big Ten opponents.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Miami overall, 4-1 for Miami at home, 4-1 for Minnesota against the ACC, 5-1 for Minnesota on Wednesday and 12-5 for Minnesota after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI (FLA.) and UNDER
(6) Duke (6-0, 4-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (4-1, 2-2 ATS)
Fresh off a dominating victory over UConn in the NIT Season Tip-Off championship game in New York, Duke now looks to improve to 11-0 all-time in the ACC/Big Ten challenge when it makes its first ever trip to the Kohl Center in Wisconsin.
The Blue Devils rode their defense to another Preseason NIT championship last weekend, manhandling Arizona State (64-53 as a 10-point favorite) and UConn (68-59 as a 3½-point chalk). In the title-game win, Duke was putrid from the field, shooting 29.2 percent, but it held the Huskies to 36.1 percent shooting. For the season, the Blue Devils are yielding just 58.2 ppg on 35.7 percent shooting, with four of their last five opponents failing to crack the 60-point mark.
Wisconsin is back in action for the first time since wrapping up play in the Maui Invitational eight days ago. The Badgers went 2-1 (1-2 ATS) in the tournament for a third-place finish, sandwiching victories over Arizona (65-61 as a 5½-point favorite) and Maryland (78-69 as a two-point underdog) around a loss to eventual tournament-champion Gonzaga (74-61 as a two-point chalk).
Last year in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, Duke crushed then-No. 9 Purdue 76-60 as a two-point road underdog. Not only are the Blue Devils a perfect 10-0 in the made-for-TV event – including 3-0 on the road – but they’ve held their last three Big Ten foes to 60 points or less. That includes an 82-58 dismantling of Wisconsin in 2007 as a 9½-point home chalk, the only recent meeting between these schools. Duke is 5-1 ATS in its last six against the Big Ten.
The Badgers are just 4-6 SU in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge (3-1 at home), though they upended of Virginia Tech 74-72 as a three-point underdog last December, improving to 8-1 ATS in their last nine against ACC competition (the lone non-cover coming at Duke two years ago). Wisconsin has also covered in 11 of its lat 14 on Wednesday, but is otherwise in ATS downturns of 0-6 after a SU win, 0-4 after a non-cover and 2-8 against winning teams.
For Duke, the under is on runs of 7-2 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win, 17-5 after an ATS triumph and 35-17 on Wednesday, while Wisconsin has stayed low in nine of 12 overall, seven of eight after a SU win and 22 of 28 after a spread-cover. However, the over is 6-1 in the Badgers’ last seven against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
(21) Florida State (6-1, 2-2 ATS) at (15) Ohio State (5-1, 4-2 ATS)
Two ranked teams riding three-game win streaks duke it out at Value City Arena in Columbus, where the Buckeyes host Florida State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
The Seminoles captured the Old Spice Classic championship in Orlando with Sunday’s 57-56 victory over Marquette as a one-point underdog, rallying from a 12-point halftime deficit. They won all three games in the tournament – also knocking off Iona and Alabama – despite scoring just 54, 60 and 57 points, but the defense stepped up, yielding just 52 ppg. Since opening the season by tallying 87, 80 and 89 points, Florida State has averaged a paltry 55.8 ppg in its last four games.
Ohio State followed up its only loss of the season (77-73 to North Carolina in the 2K Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden) with three straight wins. First, the Buckeyes topped Cal 76-70 as a 3½-point favorite in the 2K Sports Classic consolation game, then came home and destroyed Lipscomb (84-64, coming up short as a 28-point chalk) and St. Francis-Pennsylvania (110-47, covering as a 35½-point favorite). Thad Matta’s squad has alternated spread-covers in its last five games.
The schools last met in 2000, with Ohio State rolling to a 90-65 victory as a seven-point favorite.
Going back to last year, the Seminoles are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 road games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday affairs, while Ohio State is on pointspread surges of 7-3 overall, 16-6 in non-conference play and 5-2 after a SU win, but the Buckeyes are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine versus ACC competition.
Florida State carries “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-2 on the road and 4-1 after a SU win, but the over has cashed in five of its last seven against the Big Ten and five straight on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the under is 7-3 in Ohio State’s last 10 after a SU victory, but the total has alternated in the Buckeyes’ last 12 games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Phoenix (14-4, 11-7 ATS) at Cleveland (12-5, 8-9 ATS)
The Suns will attempt to bounce back from last night’s ugly loss in New York as they conclude a four-game road trip with a visit to Quicken Loans Arena, where they will battle LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
Phoenix took a four-game SU and ATS winning streak into Madison Square Garden on Tuesday and left with a 126-99 loss as a 7½-point road favorite. It was the first time all season and the first time in their last 21 games that the Suns failed to score at least 100 points. Phoenix, which had won its previous four games over Detroit, Memphis, Minnesota and Toronto by margins of 19, 25, 15 and 25 points, still leads the NBA in scoring at 111.3 ppg. It has also still reached the century mark in 52 of the last 59 contests, tallying 109 or more 38 times.
Cleveland followed up Friday’s 94-87 loss at Charlotte with Saturday’s 111-95 rout of the Mavericks, covering as a 9½-point home chalk. Since dropping its first two games of the season the Cavaliers have won 12 of their last 15, reaching triple digits nine times during this stretch. Cleveland has been playing solid defense of late, too, allowing an average of 92.6 ppg in the last five after a four-game stretch in which it yielded 105.8 ppg.
The Cavaliers swept the season series from Phoenix last year, winning 109-92 as a nine-point home favorite and 119-111 as a 4½-point road chalk, and those two victories ended Phoenix’s 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry. The favorite has cashed in nine straight head-to-head clashes, the home team is on a 7-3 ATS run and the SU winner has covered the spread in 11 consecutive meetings.
Despite Tuesday’s upset defeat in New York, the Suns are on ATS hot streaks of 10-5 overall (4-1 last five), 6-3 on the road and 5-2 against the Eastern Conference, but they’re just 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Cavs have covered just three times in their last eight games – all as a favorite – alternating spread-covers in their last five, and they’re also in ATS funks of 1-4 at home and 3-7 against Pacific Division foes. On the positive side, Cleveland is on ATS upticks of 6-0 against winning teams, 10-3 when coming off three or more days’ rest and 5-2 versus the Western Conference.
Phoenix is on “under” runs of 5-1-2 overall, 4-0-1 on the road and 4-1-1 against Eastern Conference opponents, but the over is 35-16-1 in their last 52 versus the Central Division and 24-8 in their last 32 on Wednesday. Cleveland carries “over” streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-1 against Pacific Division opponents, 5-1 on Wednesday and 4-0 after three or more days of rest. Finally, eight of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry have topped the total, including the last five in a row at Quicken Loans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (9-8, 10-7 ATS) at L.A. Clippers (8-10, 7-11 ATS)
The Clippers try for their first three-game winning streak of the season when they welcome the Rockets to Staples Center for a Western Conference clash.
Houston has been struggling with consistency since a 3-1 start to the season, going 6-7 SU in its last 13 games. However, the Rockets snapped their first two-game SU slide and three-game ATS slump of the year with Sunday’s 100-91 upset victory over the Thunder as a three-point road underdog. Rick Adelman’s squad has won five of eight on the road, going 6-2 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in the last four.
Los Angeles has rebounded from a 4-9 start to the campaign by winning four of its last five, including consecutive wins and covers in its last two – Friday’s 104-96 victory in Detroit as a 3½-point road underdog and Sunday’s 98-88 rout of Memphis as a 3½-point home favorite. The Clippers have held five straight opponents under 100 points (91.2 ppg average, 43.2 percent field-goal defense), and during their current 4-1 SU surge they’ve won three in a row at home (2-1 ATS).
Houston took three of four from the Clippers last season and has won eight of the last nine meetings while going 6-2 ATS (all as a favorite). L.A.’s one victory over the Rockets last year came at home (95-82 as a four-point underdog), ending Houston’s 4-0 SU and ATS run at the Staples Center. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the visitor has gotten the money in 19 of the last 26.
Along with their 4-0 ATS run on the highway, the Rockets have cashed in four of five on Wednesday and are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 when going on two days of rest and 6-2 ATS in their last eight versus losing teams. Los Angeles is mired in ATS slumps of 19-39 overall, 21-44 at home, 9-25 against Western Conference opponents, 7-21 against teams from the Southwest Division, 13-38 after a SU win and 1-5 on Wednesday.
The over is 7-1 in Houston’s last eight games after a SU victory and 8-1 in its last nine after a spread-cover, but the Clippers sport “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0 against the Western Conference, 4-0 on Wednesday and 6-2-1 when coming off two days’ rest. Finally, the under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these teams in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
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